Alumnus Publishes Article in National School Safety Journal

Editor’s Note: This article by Colonel Anthony Roberson, Chief of Police of the Central Falls (RI) Police Department and a Bellevue University alumnus was recently published in The Journal of School Safety.

Predictors of Zero Tolerance Policy Violations: Evidence to Strengthen School-Police Partnerships

Zero-tolerance policies were originally designed to create safe learning environments by mandating severe consequences for certain behavior, including weapons possession, drug offenses and acts of violence. Overtime,owever, educators, policymakers and school safety practitioners have raised concerns about the unintended consequences of such policies, particularly their effects on marginalized student groups and their contribution to exclusionary discipline practices.

For school resource officers, understanding the individuals most at risk for zero-tolerance violations is essential. Predictive indicators can help SROs intervene earlier, support struggling students, and engage proactively rather than reactively. Despite the volume of national discussion around zero tolerance, relatively little empirical research identifies specific predictor variables that can guide early-warning and prevention strategies inside schools.

This article highlights key findings from a doctoral dissertation study examining predictors of zero-tolerance violations, with direct implications for school safety practice. The results offer SROs actionable strategies for daily operations, including identifying patterns, enhancing communication with school staff and improving student outcomes through prevention-focused approaches.

Purpose & Methods

The study was designed to answer three core questions:

1. What behavioral, academic or demographic factors predict the likelihood of a student committing a zero-tolerance offense?
    
2. How do the predictors differ between middle school and high school students?
    
3. How can SROs and school personnel use the predictors to strengthen prevention efforts?
    

Understanding the behavioral predictors of zero-tolerance violations enables SROs to collaborate with administrators, counselors and teachers to identify students who may require additional support before the behavior escalates.

The study uses archival data from a mid-sized suburban school district. The dataset includes:

• Student demographics (grade level, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic indicators).
   
• Attendance records.
   
• Prior behavioral infractions.
   
• Classroom and school discipline reports.
   
• Zero-tolerance outcomes.

A quantitative statistical model (logistic regression) is used to determine which variables are most strongly associated with zero-tolerance violations. The key variables analyzed include:

• Prior suspensions.
   
• Detentions.
   
• Classroom behavior referrals.
   
• Teacher notes on conduct.
   
• Chronic absenteeism.
   
• Grade level and age.
   
• Socioeconomic indicators.
   
• Special education status.

While the detailed statistics are available in the full dissertation, this article focuses on the findings with the greatest value for school safety practitioners.

Key Findings

1. Prior Behavior Is the Strongest Predictor

Students included in the study with a history of disciplinary incidents were found to be significantly more likely to commit zero-tolerance violations. Repeated classroom disruptions, ongoing disrespect or defiance incidents, aggressive or verbal conflicts, and previous suspensions or administrative referrals were found to be highly predictive of zero-tolerance violations. While past behavior does not ensure zero-tolerance incidents will occur, it is an early warning indicator. SROs can use prior behavior to identify students who may benefit from mentorship or intervention.

2. Chronic Absenteeism Strongly Predicts Risk

Students with high absenteeism, both excused and unexcused, were more likely to violate zero-tolerance policies. Notable attendance patterns included students missing more than 10 percent of school days, frequent tardiness and repeated early dismissals. Among the examined population, chronic absenteeism often overlapped with other risk factors like disengagement, academic frustration and school avoidance. SROs, therefore, should treat attendance as a safety indicator; students who rarely attend school often struggle with social and behavioral expectations upon return, creating opportunities for conflict.

3. Classroom Behavior Referrals Are a Key Early Indicator

Referrals for persistent talking out or refusal to follow directions, classroom disruption, oppositional behavior and minor physical conflicts with peers correlated strongly with later zero-tolerance violations. The low-level behaviors were often precursors to more serious conduct issues, highlighting the fact that even minor referrals reveal patterns. SROs can map behavior patterns with administrators and use them to target early intervention.

4. Middle School Students Are Different From High School Students

The study found important age-level differences. For middle school students, impulsivity-related behaviors were more predictive, peer conflict was more common and emotional-regulation challenges played a larger role than for high school students. High schoolers involved in zero-tolerance incidents were likely to exhibit absenteeism, academic struggles and behavioral issues due to off-campus influences and social group involvement (peer pressure, older peers). SROs must therefore recognize that their intervention strategies should be age specific. Middle school students need proactive relationship-building and conflict resolution training. High school students benefit from mentorship, attendance interventions and targeted support around peer influences.

5. Demographics Should Be Used Selectively

Some demographic variables showed statistical correlations consistent with national data, but the study results emphasized they should never be used as predictors in isolation. Instead, behavioral, attendance, social indicators and other contextual factors should guide SRO decision-making and interventions.

Implications for School Resource Officers

This study offers the following actionable steps that SROs can use immediately to improve school safety:

1. Use Data to Identify At-Risk Students Early

• SROs should collaborate weekly or monthly with:
   i. School administrators.
   ii. Data teams.
   iii. School counselors.
   iv. Behavioral specialists.
   
• Key data SROs can request or participate in reviewing:
   i. Attendance reports.
   ii. Discipline summaries.
   iii. Patterns of classroom referrals.
   iv. Prior-year conduct data.
   
• The approach helps SROs focus prevention efforts on students showing early warning signs.

2. Develop Targeted Mentorship Opportunities

• Students with repeated referrals or absenteeism benefit from:
   i. Informal check-ins.
   ii. “Coffee with a cop”-style conversations.
   iii. Positive reinforcement for small successes.
   iv. Guidance on conflict resolution.
   
• When SROs build trust early, they reduce the likelihood of escalation.

3. Strengthen School-Police Communication

• SROs should help ensure:
   i. Teachers know when to involve the SRO versus when to use internal discipline channels.
   ii. Administrators share relevant behavioral patterns.
   iii. SROs understand the school’s discipline philosophy.
   
• Research shows that schools with strong communication have relatively few severe incidents.

4. Support Alternatives to Zero-Tolerance Responses

• While some situations require immediate action, many students benefit from alternatives, such as:
   i. Restorative practices.
   ii. Social-emotional learning interventions.
   iii. Behavior intervention plans.
   iv. Multi-tiered support systems.
   v. Peer mediation.
   
• SROs play an important role in connecting students to these options.

5. Create an Intervention Plan for High-Risk Patterns

• Focus on students exhibiting multiple predictors, such as:
   i. Prior incidents.
   ii. Attendance problems.
   iii. Behavioral referrals.
   
• SROs should coordinate a multidisciplinary support plan with:
   i. Counselors.
   ii. Parents.
   iii. Teachers.
   iv. Coaches or mentors.
   v. School administration.
   
• A team-based approach has been shown to reduce severe incidents dramatically.

Policy Recommendations

The results of this study also offer a recommended course of action for school administrators and district leaders.

The administrators should consider:

1. Replacing Generic Zero-Tolerance Policies With Tiered Models

• A tiered discipline system allows:
   i. Early intervention.
   ii. Graduated consequences.
   iii. More consistent administrative decisions.

2. Investing in Cross-Training Between SROs and Educators

• Joint training improves:
   i. De-escalation.
   ii. Trauma-sensitive practices.
   iii. Communication.
   iv. Student expectation consistency.

3. Using Predictive Indicators in Prevention Programs

• Schools should incorporate attendance, behavior and referral patterns into:
   i. Early-warning systems.
   ii. Behavioral support referrals.
   iii. Case management meetings.

4. Establishing Clear Role Definitions for SROs

• Role clarity reduces the risk of criminalizing normal adolescent behaviors while ensuring safety when necessary.

Working Ahead

Zero-tolerance policies continue to play a significant role in school safety, but research shows that many serious incidents are predictable long before they occur. This study demonstrates that behavioral history, absenteeism and classroom conduct patterns are among the strongest predictors of zero-tolerance violations.

For SROs, understanding these indicators opens the door to proactive engagement, relationship-based policing and strategic prevention efforts. By partnering with school staff, emphasizing early intervention and focusing on data-informed practices, SROs can significantly reduce the likelihood of severe incidents while strengthening trust and safety within the school community.

The findings emphasize a powerful message: Prevention works, especially when SROs are equipped with the right information, strong partnerships and student-centered strategies.

About Colonel Anthony J. Roberson, Chief of Police

Colonel Anthony J. Roberson, Ed.D., is the 19th Chief of Police for the Central Falls (RI) Police Department and a veteran law enforcement leader with more than two decades of service. He holds a doctorate in educational leadership, specializing in student behavior and school safety, and has served as a school resource officer, academy instructor, juvenile justice liaison and certified teacher. Roberson is a graduate of the FBI National Academy, Harvard Kennedy School Executive Education and multiple national leadership programs. His research focuses on zero-tolerance predictors, youth behavioral intervention and strengthening school-police partnerships.